Title and Abstract
Chasing opportunity: Spillovers and drivers of U.S. state population growth
We examine the drivers and spatial diffusion of US state population growth using a dynamic spatial panel model over the period 1965-2017. Methodologically, the spatial network is recovered from the data rather than imposed a priori, and estimation framework permits heterogeneous slopes and interactive fixed effects. Population growth displays heterogeneous conditional convergence: around three-quarters of states converge, while a small high-growth group diverges mildly. Core drivers such as amenities, labour income and migration frictions are robust across network specifications, whereas productivity effects arise only under data-inferred networks. Spatial spillovers are economically meaningful, accounting for roughly one-third of total effects and extending beyond contiguous neighbours.
Suggested Citation
Kripfganz, S., and V. Sarafidis (2026). Chasing opportunity: Spillovers and drivers of U.S. state population growth.
Spatial Economic Analysis, 20th Anniversary Special Issue, forthcoming.
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